ESPN's release of its Football Power Index (FPI) projections

CDB

Well-known member
BC is projected to be 59th winning between 5.6-6.4 games (10th in ACC). Even with Phil and Zay back, we are not projected to be better than average with a chance to go to another mediocre bowl. Hope we will prove ESPN wrong, but I can see several toss up games on our schedule. Clearly outsiders believe Hafley's honeymoon is over -- that our QB and wide receiver are not enough for us to win more, and that our offensive and D lines are not special,
 
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CDB

Well-known member
I know many are paw pawing the rating from ESPN, but I think BC fans have always been optimists. The main reason here is almost everyone wanted ADDAZIO gone. Why? He is a 6-6 coach. If we don’t have at least 7 wins, Hafley will have a similar record. My friend (former coach) also is not on Phil’s side right now. Why? Health— Phil is always getting hurt. He said you could blame that on style of play, but it doesn’t matter to my friend. If you get injured in college, you usually get injured in the pros. It would not surprise if Phil gets hurt this year. My main concern is that Morehead plays like a deer in the headlights when he is pressured. I am not convinced that is something that is coachable. If not BC must train a serviceable backup or we might not win very many games at all. We all have seen QBs who hit every throw if they have 5-6 seconds, but crumble if they are pressured (or 4-star basketball players who cannot hit a three with a hand in their face). Backing up our QB after what has happened these past 2 seasons is something none of our coaches can say that it was a surprise. This all falls on the coaching staff. After all no matter what, BC goes into 2023 without Phil.
 

BCEagle74

Well-known member
I read somewhere here I think, Moorhead has been making strides and preparing.

Moorhead better be ready to be plug-n-play with Jurkovec’s injury history, or even not, on a bad game or change of pace move.

I don’t know who is 3rd QB but he also better ready and avoid last years sharp offensive slippage after Jurk went down.
 
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Bigfan78

Member
Way to early to make an assessment about Morehead. I am not at all surprised he had the deer in the headlights look in the very limited action he saw last year. Very few Fluties in world. Does he have talent? Is he coachable? We'll see.
 

micmon

Active member
I think the mean win total of 6 is about right. Many ???? to answer for BC this coming season. But the more interesting stat to ponder is variance.

I think the variance is wide for BC, given the unknowables at this point. Meaning, I would not be shocked at either 9 wins or 3. It all depends on the answers to the ????
 

CDB

Well-known member
Agree Micron, but because we were all told last year that Dennis would be an okay backup if something happened to Phil -- and with the unproductive outings of Morehead -- it does give one pause the perhaps this whole program is based on Phil and if he gets hurt we will have a repeat of last year -- and let's face it -- we will not have Phil next year -- Texas A&M was supposed to compete with Alabama and GA last year and in the beginning of the season, TAMU lost its experienced QB and had to start a new one -- he was awful for 3-4 games and then showed real progress by the end of the year. Jimbo Fischer apologized to the fan base and promised he would never again have a whole season tank because of not having a backup ready to run the offense. I have not heard our coaches talk much about this problem -- but, like I said -- it does give me pause. It is one thing to take 4 and 5 stars and have one of the best defenses -- it is another to take 3 and do the same -- and if, Phil hadn't been hurt, he would have played most of the plays last year and we would have had a different QB ready for this year -- so I am concerned that the excuse is the Morehead isn't experienced yet -- we all know that -- but that we should have someone ready to run the offense -- that's what college coaches do -- last year was a disaster, but it wasn't on the coaches -- except they kept saying Dennis was ready -- this year we should have a backup ready -- not ready to learn -- ready to lead.
 
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micmon

Active member
These days you're lucky if you have a game ready backup QB. A lot of top QBs, if they don't see a path to the field after a redshirt year, they're gone in the portal. That fact said a lot about Mac Jones, an NFL talent waiting 4 years for his chance. Doesn't happen much.

Grosel could easily have transferred, and we wouldn't have had him to kick around last year. BC didn't have Anthony Brown or EJ Perry waiting around for a chance.

I think Morehead is in a completely different spot this year. He's not a true FR with zero reps in the bank. We can't expect a banner year if PJ is out for the season, but is Morehead good enough to get BC out of a game where PJ turns an ankle?
 

CDB

Well-known member
True, especially with a great QB -- BC was wrong about Perry who is scheduled to be drafted and starred in the Ivy League -- Anthony was always an average to good QB, but who, like Phil, was prone to injury. Morehead should be okay if he can learn to take pressure and not just throw the ball as soon as he sees anyone out of the corner of his eye -- maybe the difference is the transfer portal, but if I were Brown and had a chance to continue to be a starter at a program like Oregon, I would have jumped at the chance with a new coaching staff that did not RPO coming in. And Brown was scheduled to sit on the bench and certainly thought he could play and there is a difference between an Ivy League diploma -- but I think another reason is that we were always forced to have someone ready because our QBs were kids who needed to be developed and were coached accordingly. Dennis could run the RPO (but did not have Anthony's arm), but he and a couple of others could fill in when needed -- My whole point is that BC is playing in a Power Five League and cannot use the excuse that the year was less than successful because it lost its QB more than once every several years -- And if, Morehead is the answer, we need to learn that this year or next year will be another year where we have QB issues. We are looking to get a quality QB like Phil as BC has not been able to land these guys -- and Coach doesn't want to use the portal -- he wants to develop from within -- so I think it is time to develop from within. Most of the schools play their starting QB about 2/3 - 3/4 of the time and spend the rest developing the newer personnel. I hope BC will do the same -- especially with an injury-prone QB.
 

micmon

Active member
Most of the schools play their starting QB about 2/3 - 3/4 of the time and spend the rest developing the newer personnel.
Is this true? I'm most familiar with the ACC, but I see guys like Uiagelelei, Pickett, Leary, Hartman, Cunningham, Armstrong, etc. out there at least 90% of the time or more.

It's a nice idea to give the backup some time, but it doesn't happen most places with a well defined quality #1.
 

CDB

Well-known member
It is always true if the score is out of hand. Normally, new backups are given a series 1 or 2 at times when the chances of negative impact are least. This would be mid- first quarter and after a team has held an opponent the first time it gets the ball in the second half. Reason we don’t see this as much on TV games, is that they are normally games of high import. Morehead needs more snaps this year and, whoever is now on board who will be his backup needs to play some also. UGA won the NC with a walk-on. BC only played Flutie because it was down to one more experienced QB, and Cowboy, according to himself, played the freshman because he didn’t want to get anyone else he thought could play to get hurt. Players always prove their worth on the field. Decision-making, elusiveness, prudence are things a kid may or may not have — that is why they need to take a few snaps in a planned way.
 

Ohdannyboy73

New member
Way to early to make an assessment about Morehead. I am not at all surprised he had the deer in the headlights look in the very limited action he saw last year. Very few Fluties in world. Does he have talent? Is he coachable? We'll see.
Let me ask you, i was at the Syracuse game last year when they rotated him in and out with Dennis. Why do that? Why not just let him play? How do you get into a rhythm?
 
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CDB

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the question is for the coaches, but I would assume it would also have to do with the game plan and what the coaches believed he could handle of that plan. We have all seen Morehead throw a beautiful ball when he has time -- e.g. the first ball he threw the first time he came in -- what he needs to work on is that small amount of elusiveness necessary to gain an extra second when pressure comes -- e.g. step up into the pocket and let the rusher go by or move a step or two to one side or the other -- I don't know if he can run, but if he can, he will have to know when it is time to do so or time to throw the ball away. An d he has to develop that confidence from his teammates that he can and will deliver what they need during big moments in a game. Say what you want about Dennis (we know he had difficulty throwing the ball more than 25 yards -- but he always looked like he was in charge -- he just didn't have the skill set -- Morehead looks like he has the skill set. But with Phil leaving for certain next year, I would put him in for longer periods of time so that the coaches can either find another player with more talent or develop a plan of action for improving his weaknesses and improving on his strengths -- it is very difficult to see those in practice -- I could see Dennis going through his progressions -- finding the right receiver -- and then not having the ability to deliver the pass to where it needed to go -- I want to see the same from Morehead -- and hope that his accuracy will be great -- he appears to have the arm strength already. My point is this with these QBs -- they should all have the skill set to be our starting QB -- once in while there is a great one -- but most will be good or good enough -- the difference in them should be experience -- knowing faster how to read the defense and making decisions about what to do faster -- knowing the receivers strengths and weaknesses, etc. Experience will never make up for not having the basic talent -- we saw last year that all the experience in the world can not make up for lack of talent. Sometimes failure is on the athlete -- he fails to kick an easy field goal -- or drops a wide open TD pass, etc. But when kids make the same mistakes repeatedly, that is always on the coaches. If Phil is does or does not get hurt this year -- the coaches should be ready this time to deliver -- last year they failed to do so -- there will be no excuses this year.
 

BCEagle74

Well-known member
Need starter, solid practice rep #2 backup that can take over for full season, 3rd backup if both injured that is serviceable.

4th & 5th QB’s needs to be a redshirt and or freshman top prospects that can step up into starter or #2 slot by mid season, or have enough talent to just play.

BC is not there yet, but getting depth.

Transfer Portal?
 
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